Learn how prediction markets actually work
Five minutes from now, you'll understand markets, prices, payouts, and how to place your first trade with confidence.
The 30-second version
Browse → Trade → Win
BROWSE
Pick a market you have an opinion about — politics, sports, weather, anything.
TRADE
Buy YES if you think it will happen, NO if you think it won’t. Prices update live.
WIN
Each winning share pays out 100C when the market resolves. Earn Tickets along the way.
Concept
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is a marketplace where the price of a contract reflects the probability that something will happen. Think of it as a stock market for outcomes.
Example
Suppose a market on “Will it rain in Manila tomorrow?” shows YES at 70%. The crowd is collectively saying there is a 70% chanceof rain. If you think it's more likely than 70%, buy YES. If you think it's less likely, buy NO at 30%.
Anatomy
Reading a market
Will Candidate A win the 2028 presidential election?
- Price = probability.YES at 62% means the market thinks there's a 62% chance of YES — and that one YES share costs 62 Coins.
- YES + NO always = 100%. If YES goes up, NO goes down by the same amount. They are mirror images.
- Payout preview. The small line under each price (e.g.
100C → 161C) shows how many Coins you'd receive on a winning 100-Coin bet at the current price.
Worked example
Your first trade, step by step
You see a market: “Will Ginebra reach the PBA finals?”
YES is at 40%, NO is at 60%.The card's payout preview shows 100C → 250C on YES.
You think the crowd is wrong — Ginebra looks strong. You tap YES, type 4,000into the “How many coins?” field, and confirm. 4,000C is debited from your wallet, and your YES position is now worth up to 10,000C if YES is correct (4,000 ÷ 0.40).
Two weeks later, Ginebra is dominating. The market reprices YES to 70%. You have two choices:
Your 4,000C stake is now worth roughly 7,000C at the 70% price (4,000 × 70/40).
Profit: +3,000C. Lock it in, no more risk.
If Ginebra makes finals, you collect the full 10,000C.
Profit: +6,000C. If they fall short: −4,000C.
The takeaway: selling early locks in a smaller, certain profit. Holding bets on the full payout. Most experienced traders mix both — sell some, hold some. Numbers shown ignore small price movement caused by your own trade (slippage); the app shows the exact figures before you confirm.
Pricing
How prices move
Miru uses an automated market maker (LMSR — Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule). You can forget the math — just remember three things:
Buying pushes the price up
Every YES purchase makes the next YES share slightly more expensive.
Selling pushes it down
Selling YES nudges the YES price lower and the NO price higher.
Big trades = bigger moves
Slippage is real. Buy 10 shares and the price barely moves; buy 10,000 and you'll feel it.
The key advantage of LMSR: there's always a price and always a counterparty. You never have to wait for someone else to take the other side of your trade.
Resolution
How markets settle
Every market lists a resolution source — the official outcome that determines the winner. Once the source confirms the result:
- The winning side pays out 100C per share.
- The losing side's shares expire worthless.
- Winnings are credited to your wallet automatically.
- The market closes; no further trades are accepted.
In rare cases of ambiguous outcomes or source failure, Miru may void the market and return your Coins at the price you paid.
Rewards ecosystem
Nuggets, Tickets, and Raffles
Coins
The play-money you trade with (shown as “C” across the app). Spend them on shares, earn them back when you win. They are the heartbeat of every market.
Tickets
Earned through achievements, daily bonuses, and milestones. Tickets are your entry into raffles for real prizes.
Raffles
Curated drops where Tickets buy you a shot at real-world prizes. The more Tickets you have, the better your odds.
FAQ
Common questions
Glossary
Words you'll see around Miru
- Market
- A Yes/No question about a future event, with live prices on each side.
- Share
- A contract that pays 100C if its side is correct on resolution, or 0 if not.
- Yes / No
- The two sides of a market. Their prices always sum to 100%.
- Price
- Shown as a percentage (0–100%). Equal to the implied probability and to the cost in Coins of one 100C-payout share — so YES at 62% costs 62C per share.
- Position
- The shares you currently hold in a market.
- Resolution
- The official outcome that decides which side wins, based on the source listed in the market.
- LMSR
- Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule — the automated market maker that prices every trade.
- Liquidity
- How much volume the market can absorb without moving the price much. Higher = more stable.
- Coins (C)
- Miru’s in-app play-money. Used to buy shares. No cash value. Internally tracked as Nuggets.
- Tickets
- Earned through play. Spent on raffle entries for real prizes.